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Trading bot · 15 / 5-minute rounds

A small program that runs on your computer next to the terminal and copies its calls onto your own Polymarket account in a fraction of a second. This page explains how it works and what every setting means, then how to set it up, and ends with the downloads for Mac and Windows.

Open the BTC Machine ↗

1 · How it works

The terminal decides, the bot only executes

The bot has no opinion of its own. The BTC Prediction Machine (the BTC Machine tab here, and the same terminal inside the kit) watches every 15-minute and 5-minute “Bitcoin Up or Down” round on Polymarket. When its model sees value, it issues a call: which side to buy, at what price and for how much. The bot listens to the terminal and places the same order on your Polymarket account, usually within a few hundred milliseconds. It follows the rounds you tick in the CALLS box: 5-minute, 15-minute or both. We run it on the 5-minute rounds.

Terminal · 4× a second1Live dataBTC price, trades and futures from Binance; the Chainlink price the round settles on; Polymarket’s order book for UP and DOWN.
Terminal2ForecastThe chance that UP or DOWN wins: distance to the strike against volatility and time left, tilted by 16 metrics and corrected by the model’s own track record.
Terminal3CallIf the chance beats the price by your edge threshold: one call per round, for example BUY UP @ 51¢ · $10.08
Your computer4BotSees the call on the terminal’s live stream at once and sends a market order capped at the call price plus slippage.
Polymarket5ResultThe round settles on the official Chainlink price. A winning share pays $1; with auto-redeem on, the money returns to your cash by itself.

What a call is based on

The forecast

Distance vs noise. A round settles on the Chainlink 60-second average at the close against the “price to beat” fixed at the start. The core of the model is how far BTC is from that strike, how many minutes are left and how volatile BTC is right now.
16 metrics tilt the odds early in the round and fade out near the end:
GapGap velocityRSIMACDBook imbalanceTaker flowStoch RSI4-hour trendOpen interestTop traders L/SGlobal L/SFundingMean reversion3 candlesMomentumVWAP
Context. How this time slot has resolved over the past year, the news calendar (FOMC, CPI, jobs) and whether volatility is normal for the hour.
Calibration. The terminal scores its own forecasts and shrinks them when it has been over-confident. It never makes them bolder.

A call needs all of these

The entry window. 15-minute rounds: from 10:00 to 2:00 before the close; 5-minute rounds: from 4:00 to 0:45. At most one call per round.
Value. Expected profit per $1 of at least your edge threshold (default 5%): model chance ÷ price − 1.
Price. The side costs no more than your cap (default 55¢).
Something to buy. At least 10 shares on offer at that price and an order book no older than 15 seconds. Otherwise the terminal shows “edge, but nothing to buy” and waits.
Protection not tripped. 6 losses in a row pause the calls for 15 minutes; −25% from the peak or −30% in a day stops them until you resume.

What the bot does and does not do

It does

Buy every new call once, for the markets ticked in CALLS (5M and/or 15M).
Pay at most the call price plus slippage: +9¢ under 20¢, +5¢ from 20 to 39¢, +2¢ from 40¢.
Spend the call’s stake, but never more than your limit (MAX_STAKE) and never less than the exchange minimum of 5 shares.
Retry every 0.25 s for up to 3 s if nothing is on offer at its cap, then give up. No fill means no money spent.
Load each new round’s market in advance and keep its connection to the exchange warm, to save time on the order.
Reconnect by itself when the terminal restarts. The start script restarts the bot if it crashes.

It does not

Pick sides or change settings: it only follows the terminal.
Sell early or use a stop-loss: every position is held until the round settles.
Trade while the terminal is closed or the computer is asleep.
Act on calls older than 60 seconds, e.g. after a restart.
Send your private key anywhere. It stays in a file on your computer and signs the orders locally, the way MetaMask does.
Guarantee a profit. Read the warning before you start.

2 · The CALLS settings

Everything the bot buys is decided in this box

The CALLS box sits at the bottom of FORECAST in the BTC Prediction Machine: the BTC Machine tab of this site shows it, and the kit’s own copy of the terminal on your computer has the same box, which is the one the bot listens to. The bot copies its calls one to one and only adds your limit per bet and its slippage. Hover a number to find it on the picture.

The CALLS box of the terminal: budget, sizing, edge and price settings and a live call BUY YES · UP at 51 cents for $10.08 — The CALLS box during a live paper session (5-minute rounds only).

1
ON
The session is running. When it is off (or stopped), there are no calls and the bot simply waits.
2
Budget $
The balance the calls are sized from. Set it to your real cash on Polymarket, so that a 1% call means 1% of your real money.
your Polymarket cash · refresh daily
3
size
auto: quarter-Kelly of the edge, scaled by time, session, drawdown and recent form; 1–6% of the balance per call. fixed: always the base %.
auto
4
base %
The stake for fixed sizing. Greyed out in auto mode.
5
after a loss
same stake means no chasing. recover and ×2 raise the stake after each loss to win the series back; with real money and missed fills that can empty an account quickly.
same stake not recover / ×2
6
can’t cover
When the balance cannot pay the next step of a series: write the series off and start again, or bet what is left.
write off, restart
7
edge ≥
Minimum value for a call, as expected profit per $1: model chance ÷ price − 1. In the picture: 0.61 ÷ 0.51 − 1 = +19%.
5 or more
8
price ≤
The most a side may cost. Above about 55¢ the terminal’s own record shows no edge.
55
9
15M / 5M
Which rounds get calls, and so which rounds the bot buys: 5-minute, 15-minute or both.
5M on (what we run) · 15M optional
10
restart with new budget · stop · apply
apply changes the rules without touching the balance. restart starts a new session from the Budget; the history is kept. stop ends the calls.
11
The call
BUY YES · UP @ 51¢ for $10.08: the side, the price and the stake. “valid until 0:45 left” is the end of the entry window (5-minute rounds: 0:45 left, 15-minute: 2:00); then the number of shares and what you win or lose. “step 1” is the first bet of a series.
12
How the stake was sized
The model said 61%, calibration trimmed it to 59%. Kelly 16% × 0.25 (quarter-Kelly) × time 0.73 × session 1 × drawdown 0.4 (the balance was 15% below its peak) × form 1 = 1.1% of the balance.
13
Session line
Paper balance, its change and peak, the current base %, the drawdown factor, recent form and wins / losses. Paper means every call counted as filled at its price, without fees.

3 · Accuracy and history

How to judge the calls before you risk money

FORECAST ACCURACY sits at the bottom-left of the BTC Prediction Machine. It is the model’s report card and the record of every call. Check it before you switch the bot to real money, and every day after.

Forecast accuracy card: model hit rate 82%, market 82%, calls balance $880, accuracy by confidence and by time left, and the call history — FORECAST ACCURACY and CALL HISTORY in the BTC Prediction Machine.

1
MODEL · hit rate
How often the side the model favoured went on to win, stamped at fixed checkpoints (15M: 12, 10, 7, 5, 3, 2, 1 minutes left; 5M: 4, 3, 2, 1, 0.5). The Brier score is the error of the probabilities: lower is better, 0.25 is a coin flip.
2
MARKET · same moments
How often the market’s own favourite (the side priced above 50¢) won at the same moments. Here both are 82%: the model is about as good as the crowd, so any profit has to come from the moments when they disagree.
3
CALLS · balance
The paper account of the calls: starting budget, profit or loss, wins and losses. Every call is counted as filled at its price, with no fees.
4
BY CONFIDENCE
Calibration. Forecasts are grouped by confidence, and a group that claims 77% should win about 77%. When a group wins less than it claims, the terminal trusts it less and bets smaller.
5
BY TIME LEFT
Accuracy by minutes left: 66% with 4 minutes to go, 94% at 30 seconds. Late forecasts are right more often, but by then the favourite is expensive and there is little left to earn.
6
CALL HISTORY
Every call: time, round, side @ price, stake (share of the balance), result and the balance after. all history opens every session, with a CSV export.
7
P&L per $1 by price
Where the calls make or lose money. “won 38% vs needs 43%”: sides bought at 43¢ on average must win more than 43% of the time to profit, and these won 38%.

Judge the calls by P&L, not by the hit rate. A call pays when it wins more often than its price implies: a side bought at 51¢ has to win more than 51% of the time. That is why CALLS · balance and P&L per $1 matter more than the big percentages at the top, and why a few hundred rounds say more than one evening.

4 · Bot settings, log and speed

Seven settings, two of which you choose at start

The start script asks for the two that matter: test or real money, and the limit per bet. The rest have tested defaults. To change one, add a line such as SLIP_HIGH=0.03 to the .env file in the bot folder and restart the bot.

Setting	Default	What it does
DRY_RUN	1	1 is test mode: the bot prints what it would buy and sends nothing. 0 sends real orders. The start script sets it: option 1 is the test, option 2 is real money.
MAX_STAKE	5	The most one call may spend, in dollars (USDC). The bot takes the call’s stake and cuts it to this limit, but never goes below the exchange minimum of 5 shares, counted at its price cap (about $2.65 for a call at 51¢). The start script asks for it in real mode.
SLIP_LOW	0.09	For calls priced under 20¢: pay up to 9¢ more than the call price. Cheap sides move in big steps and still leave room to pay up.
SLIP_MID	0.05	For calls at 20–39¢: up to 5¢ more.
SLIP_HIGH	0.02	For calls at 40¢ and above: up to 2¢ more. Here every extra cent eats most of the edge.
RETRY_MS	3000	If nothing is on offer at the cap, keep trying for this many milliseconds: the price sometimes comes back.
RETRY_GAP	250	The pause between tries, in milliseconds.

More slippage buys more calls but at worse prices. On a call at 51¢ the whole edge is often a few cents, so paying 5¢ more can turn a good call into a bad one.

Prefer typing the command yourself? In the bot folder: DRY_RUN=0 MAX_STAKE=20 node bot.mjs in Terminal$env:DRY_RUN='0'; $env:MAX_STAKE='20'; node bot.mjs in PowerShell. The start script runs exactly this for you after “2 → limit → YES”, and on top keeps the computer awake and restarts the bot if it crashes.

Reading the bot window

connected · dry-run: true · max stake $5 · slip <20¢ +0.09 · … · v7Started. The line shows the mode and the limits.

stream connected
prewarmed btc-updown-5m-… · 310 ms

Listening to the terminal; the next round’s market is loaded in advance.

… call #3 5m DOWN @ 0.31 (model 38%) → market buy $5.00, cap 0.36 (+0.05) · 85 ms after callA call arrived and the bot reacted. In test mode this line is all that happens.

order placed (attempt 1) · 320 ms round trip {"ok":true,… "status":"matched" …}Bought. The position is on your Polymarket account.

attempt 1: no orders found to match with FAK order …
gave up after 12 attempts, 3050 ms

Nothing was on offer at or below the cap: the price ran away. The call is skipped and no money is spent. This is common, and it is the main reason real results differ from paper.

attempt 1: … trading is disabled …Polymarket has paused trading for everyone. Wait; the bot carries on by itself.

stream error: fetch failed
stream connected

The terminal was restarted or closed. The bot reconnects on its own once it is back.

Faster fills: run it on a server near London optional, for advanced users

Most misses come from distance: the order book is in London, and an order from home needs 150–450 ms there and back. A small rented server (a VPS) close to London cuts that to about 15–35 ms, so the bot catches noticeably more calls.

What and where

Any small Linux VPS with 1 GB of memory is enough, about $5 a month.
Close to London, in a country Polymarket does not restrict, for example Sweden (Stockholm), Spain (Madrid) or Switzerland (Zurich).
Not London, Dublin, Amsterdam, Frankfurt or Paris: the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany and France are on Polymarket’s restricted list (help.polymarket.com → Geographic restrictions).

How

Install Node.js 24+ on the server and copy 1-Trenchlight and 2-polybot there (your filled-in .env included).
Start the terminal with npm start in 1-Trenchlight and the bot with DRY_RUN=0 MAX_STAKE=20 node bot.mjs in 2-polybot, each in its own tmux window so they keep running after you disconnect.
Open the site from your computer through an SSH tunnel: ssh -L 8787:localhost:8787 user@server, then http://localhost:8787/trenchlight.

What it does not change: the market makers next to the exchange stay faster, so the bot catches more calls, not all of them. And a server does not change where you may trade: Polymarket’s rules follow where you live, and using servers or VPNs to get around them breaks its terms.

5 · Setup, step by step

From zero to a running bot

About 20 minutes the first time. You need a Mac or a Windows PC that can stay on, an internet connection, a MetaMask wallet and a Polymarket account with some USDC. Steps 1, 2, 4 and 5 are done once; after that you only start the terminal and the bot.

Steps for macOS.

Install Node.js once
1. Open nodejs.org and download the LTS version (24 or newer).
2. Open the downloaded .pkg and click Continue until the installation finishes.
3. Run the downloaded .msi installer and keep the default options. Skipped this step? The kit’s scripts notice it and offer to install Node.js for you.
Why it is needed: the terminal and the bot are programs written in JavaScript. cmd and PowerShell only give them a windowThe Terminal app only gives them a window; Node.js is what actually runs them, the way a video needs a player. It is free and takes a minute.
Download and unpack the kit once
1. Download the kit for your system at the bottom of this page.
2. Double-click Trenchlight-kit-mac.zip. You get a folder Trenchlight-kit-mac; move it to Documents.
3. Lift macOS’s block on downloaded scripts for the whole folder: open Terminal (Cmd+Space, type Terminal, Enter), type the command below with a space at the end, drag the folder into the window and press Enter.
  xattr -dr com.apple.quarantine
  If macOS already showed “Apple could not verify…”, click Done (not Move to Bin) and run the command.
4. Right-click Trenchlight-kit-windows.zip → Properties → tick Unblock at the bottom → OK. This stops Windows from blocking the scripts later.
5. Right-click the zip again → Extract All… → choose Documents → Extract. If Windows ever says “Windows protected your PC”, click More info → Run anyway.
Start the terminal
1. In 1-Trenchlight, double-click trenchlight.commandtrenchlight.bat.
2. A window with text opens: that is the server. Keep it open while you use the site and the bot.
3. The browser opens http://localhost:8787/trenchlight by itself. The first start downloads a year of BTC candles and takes a few minutes.
Prepare Polymarket once
1. Install MetaMask in your browser and create a wallet. Write the 12-word secret phrase on paper and keep it offline; the bot never needs it. A separate MetaMask account just for trading is best.
2. On polymarket.com: Log in → MetaMask, then Deposit USDC.
3. Settings → Trading → turn on Auto-redeem wins, so winnings return to your cash by themselves.
4. Place one small bet by hand ($1). On the first bet Polymarket asks you to enable trading and sign in MetaMask; after that the bot can trade too.
5. Copy your Polymarket wallet address: avatar (top right) → your profile → the 0x… address under your name. It is not your MetaMask address and not a deposit address from the Deposit window.
6. Get the private key of that MetaMask account: MetaMask → ⋮ → Account details → Show private key → password. It is 64 characters of 0–9 and a–f, not the 12 words.
Put your address and key into the bot once

The 2-polybot folder has a file called .env. In the download it is a template: placeholders instead of an address and a key, nobody’s wallet.
1. Double-click 2-polybot/1-setup-bot.command2-polybot\1-setup-bot.bat.
2. It installs the bot’s libraries (1–2 minutes), then asks for the address and the key and writes them into .env on your computer. The key is not shown while you paste it (Cmd+VCtrl+V or right-click); that is normal.
3. Made a typo? Run it again and answer y to enter both anew.
By hand instead: open 2-polybot in Finder, press Cmd+Shift+. to show hidden files and open .env with TextEdit.open 2-polybot\.env with Notepad. Replace the two PASTE_… values with yours, change nothing else and save. Run 1-setup-bot once anyway: it installs the libraries.
Turn on the calls in the terminal

In the kit’s copy of the terminal (the browser page that opened in step 3), open the BTC Prediction Machine tab. The CALLS box is at the bottom of FORECAST (right column). Set:

Budget $
your cash on Polymarket

size
auto (Kelly × edge · time · history)

after a loss
same stake (no chasing)

can’t cover
write off, restart

edge ≥
5 %

price ≤
55 ¢

markets
5M ticked (what we run); tick 15M too if you want the bot to follow the 15-minute calls as well

Press OK — start. ON lights up. Calls come only in rounds where the model sees value, not in every round.
Test without money
1. Double-click 2-polybot/2-start-bot.command2-polybot\2-start-bot.bat and choose 1.
2. Watch for 20–30 minutes: every call in the terminal should show up in the bot window as a call #… line. Nothing is bought in test mode.
3. Stop it with Ctrl+C.
Real money
1. Start 2-start-bot again, choose 2, enter the limit per bet (Enter = $5) and type YES. That is all: the script starts the bot with real orders for you, there is no command to type.
2. Keep both windows open and the computer awake: plugged in, lid open. While the bot runs, the start script keeps the computer from sleeping. If you must close the lid: Control Panel → Power Options → “Choose what closing the lid does” → Do nothing.
3. Once a day, press restart with new budget in CALLS and enter your real cash, then compare the real balance with the paper one. The difference is missed calls and fees.

Stop and start again. Stop the bot with Ctrl+C in its window (or close the window); stop the terminal the same way. Next time: start the terminal, wait for the browser, then start the bot → 2 → limit → YES. The call session and its history are kept.

If something goes wrong

Node.js not found / needs Node.js 24 or newerStep 1: install the current LTS from nodejs.org.

“Apple could not verify…”Step 2: the xattr command, then double-click again.

“Windows protected your PC”More info → Run anyway. Or unblock the zip before unpacking (step 2).

port 8787 is already in useThe terminal is already running: just open http://localhost:8787/trenchlight.

The .env file still has the templateStep 5: run 1-setup-bot, or replace the two PASTE_… values by hand.

The terminal is not running (when starting the bot)Start the terminal first and wait until the browser opens.

Expected a hex-encoded 32-byte private keyThe key was pasted wrongly, or the 12 words were used. Run 1-setup-bot again.

not enough balance / allowanceNo cash on Polymarket yet, or trading is not enabled: deposit, or place one bet by hand (step 4).

invalid signature · unauthorized · 401The address and the key belong to different accounts. The address must be the Polymarket profile you log in to with that MetaMask account.

Calls appear, the bot buys nothingIf the bot window shows call #… and then gave up, those are misses, not a fault (see the warning). If no call #… lines appear, close the bot window and start it again.

A black window looks frozenPress Esc. Windows pauses a program while text is selected in its window.

Your private key is full access to your money.

It lives only in 2-polybot/.env on your computer. Nobody needs it: not a chat, not an AI assistant, not “support”. Never screenshot it.
Use a separate MetaMask account that holds only the money you trade with.
The downloads contain a template, not anyone’s wallet. Once you fill it in, your 2-polybot folder holds your key: never share that folder. To pass the bot on, send the original zip.
Never type the 12-word phrase anywhere except MetaMask itself.

6 · Download

Download the kit

Each kit contains the whole site with the terminal (1-Trenchlight) and the bot with its setup and start scripts (2-polybot). The bot’s .env is a template: there is no wallet or key inside, and you put in your own in step 5.

macOS

Download for Mac

Trenchlight-kit-mac.zip · zip
macOS 12 or newer · Apple silicon or Intel · Node.js 24+

1-Trenchlight: the site and the terminal, started with trenchlight.command
2-polybot: the bot, 1-setup-bot.command, 2-start-bot.command and the .env template
README.txt: this guide as text

Windows

Download for Windows

Trenchlight-kit-windows.zip · zip
Windows 10 or 11 · Node.js 24+

1-Trenchlight: the site and the terminal, started with trenchlight.bat
2-polybot: the bot, 1-setup-bot.bat, 2-start-bot.bat and the .env template
README.txt: this guide as text

Prediction-market shares can lose the whole stake. Polymarket is not available in every country: check before you deposit.

Quantum memecoin terminal · Solana and Robinhood Chain

Every coin is rug and runner
until you observe it.

A chameleon moves each eye on its own, and in |CHAMELEON⟩ each eye is a qubit: one on Solana, one on Robinhood Chain. Every pump.fun and Pons launch is measured the second it happens: the rugs collapse out before you see them, calls are written down at the cap they were made at, the Quantum radar follows the hottest narrative in the trenches, and you see the traders who are inside. Analytics only: no trading, no funds held, never a private key.

Enter the terminal Roadmap @ChameleonScopee on X

⚛️

Quantum radar

Quantum is the hottest narrative in the Solana trenches right now, and the radar is the first thing the terminal shows. It finds the coins riding it: quantum, quant, qubit, Q-Day, post-quantum, Shor or Willow in the name or the ticker, from the new launches and from a search every few minutes. Each one passes the same rug gate as the feed and shows with its picture, the hottest first, with the narrative's last hour on top: the money through it, how it moved, the coin leading it.

🦎

Trenches

Fresh launches, almost bonded, migrated and the top coins, every one put through the same gate: dev share, bundles, snipers, insiders, honeypots, wash trading, mint and freeze rights. A token that fails collapses out and never shows, and none shows without its picture. What passes carries a verdict: STRONG, WATCH or CAUTION.

🎯

Calls

When a token bonds and keeps its strength, or breaks out again with real money behind it, Chameleon calls it and writes the cap down. Every call is followed to the end in public: the peak since the call, the 2x, 5x and 10x milestones, and the rug if it comes.

🐋

Known traders

The KOLs and top wallets known by name, marked inside every token they enter, with their 30-day records. Add your own traders and watch what they buy.

🧠

Smart Tracking

Who is inside a token, sorted by how much their record is worth reading. Paste any wallet and see its record, its patterns and its latest trades.

🌿

Chameleon Valley

The online farm behind the terminal: a hundred homes for the players online, every entry confirmed in Phantom. Plant, sell, visit the neighbours.

₿

Prediction markets

BTC Machine (Polymarket Bitcoin up or down, 15 and 5 minutes), the course behind it and Poly Smart, the traders worth copying on Polymarket. Built by the partner.

How to get in

Connect Phantom at the portal: that is the observation, and the portal collapses into the terminal. It shares only your wallet's public address: no transaction, no fee, no approval, and the key never leaves Phantom. On a phone, open this site in the Phantom app. Everything new is announced on @ChameleonScopee first.

Chameleon is an independent project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by the Solana Foundation, Robinhood or Phantom. The quantum here is the look and the narrative the radar follows, not a quantum computer: every number comes from public on-chain data. Not financial advice.

Chameleon

Trading bot · 15 / 5-minute rounds

The terminal decides, the bot only executes

What a call is based on

The forecast

A call needs all of these

What the bot does and does not do

It does

It does not

Everything the bot buys is decided in this box

How to judge the calls before you risk money

Seven settings, two of which you choose at start

Reading the bot window

Faster fills: run it on a server near London optional, for advanced users

What and where

How

From zero to a running bot

Install Node.js once

Download and unpack the kit once

Start the terminal

Prepare Polymarket once

Put your address and key into the bot once

Turn on the calls in the terminal

Test without money

Real money

Download the kit

macOS your system

Windows your system

Every coin is rug and runneruntil you observe it.

Quantum radar

Trenches

Calls

Known traders

Smart Tracking

Chameleon Valley

Prediction markets

How to get in

The state is observed.Here is what collapses next.

The observation

Measurement

Entanglement

Many worlds

More qubits

macOS

Windows

Every coin is rug and runner
until you observe it.

The state is observed.
Here is what collapses next.