Macro news (BTC)
TRUMP · TRUTH SOCIAL
NEWS
EVENTS · TODAY (ET)
BTC FORECAST ·
📖 HOW TO USE THIS TERMINAL
New to 15 / 5-minute rounds? Start with the 📖 Course · 15 / 5 min: fifteen short lessons, each ending with where the idea lives on this screen. The Trenchlight hub has this terminal, the course and the 🐋 Smart traders scanner as tabs.
1Screen layout
- Left — the live round. Price to beat (Chainlink TWAP-60s at round start), current TWAP, YES/NO best bids and the gap; a paper-trading simulator; twelve live FLOW cards.
- Center — the chart. BTC/USDT with VWAP, EMA 9/21, MACD and RSI 14 with its moving average (RSI crossing its MA is an early momentum shift); below it the price strip and macro context.
- Right — the signal engine. FORECAST, then SIGNAL, CONFLUENCE, CORE SCORE, HISTORY, MOMENTUM, REVERSAL and the ENTRY CHECK.
2Forecast — win odds
One question for the selected market: if I buy now, how likely is it that this side wins?
How it is built
- Distance vs noise. The round settles on the Chainlink 60-second TWAP at the close vs the strike, so the base is how far price is from the strike, how many minutes remain and how volatile BTC is right now.
- For scale: $200 below the strike with 1 minute left ≈ 1%; a fresh round with price on the strike ≈ 50%.
- 16 metrics tilt the odds: noticeably at the start of a round, hardly at all in the last minute.
- HISTORY adds a small prior from this slot's past outcomes (weekday × time).
- NEWS widens the noise around FOMC, CPI, NFP… and adds a tiny lean from headlines.
- SESSION compares volatility with what is normal for this hour: CALM / NORMAL / HOT / EXTREME.
How to read it
- MARKET is what Polymarket charges; edge = model minus market.
- IF YOU BUY gives the win chance, payout and expected value for the better-priced side.
An estimate of an uncertain event, not a guarantee.
3Calls — what to buy, how much, when
When a call appears
- Set a budget in the CALLS box and press OK — start.
- One call per round, only inside the entry window: 15M 10 → 2 min left, 5M 4:00 → 0:45.
- Only when a side has an edge: EV ≥ your threshold (default 5%) and price ≤ your cap (default 55¢).
- Only when someone is actually selling: at least 10 shares at that price and a fresh order book. Otherwise the status reads “edge, but nothing to buy”.
- The call reads BUY UP / DOWN @ price · $stake.
How much (auto)
Quarter-Kelly of the calibrated edge, f = ¼ × (p − price) ÷ (1 − price), where p is the model's chance corrected by the accuracy journal. Then scaled by:
- Time in window
- early ×0.7 → late ×1
- Session
- HOT ×0.85 · EXTREME ×0.6 · news release ×0.6–0.8
- Drop from peak
- 5–10% ×0.8 · 10–15% ×0.6 · 15–20% ×0.4 · 20%+ ×0.25
- Last 20 calls
- in the red ×0.75 · below −15% ×0.5
- Spread over 3¢
- ×0.7
Result: 1–6% of the balance per call. Or choose fixed and set the base %.
After a loss
- same stake — the default, no chasing.
- recover — next stake = base + losses ÷ net payout, so one win repays the whole series.
- ×2 — plain doubling.
- A series is written off after 4 losses; no call ever risks more than 25% of what is available.
Protection (on by default)
- 6 losses in a row → calls pause for 15 min.
- −25% from the session peak or −30% on the day → calls stop until you press resume.
Why these numbers. A bootstrap of the terminal's own calls: stakes above ~2.5–3% of the balance grew slower, not faster, so bigger dollar stakes should come from a bigger budget, not a bigger fraction. A side at 20¢ loses five times in a row in every third series even at a fair price. The first session went $100 → $1,150 on two 17¢ wins, then twelve losses in a row with an escalating series → $0.
Paper vs real. CALL HISTORY settles every call as if it was bought at the call price. Real orders miss the fastest moves (the price can run within a second) and Polymarket charges a taker fee, so a real account lags the paper balance. Restart the session with your real balance every day.
4Forecast accuracy bottom-left
The model's own report card.
- The forecast is stamped at fixed checkpoints: 15M 12/10/7/5/3/2/1 min left, 5M 4/3/2/1/0.5.
- When the round resolves, each stamp is marked ✓ or ✗.
- You see the hit rate, calibration by confidence level (a HIGH call should win about as often as it claims), accuracy by time left, the crowd's accuracy at the same moments and the P&L of $1 on every value bet.
- The 15M / 5M switch on the card picks the market. The history is never cleared by a click; rounds that end while the terminal is off are settled from candles and marked *.
5Course rules baked in
- Entry zone
- 50–72¢, never above 72¢
- Timing
- 2–13 min before close, best 10–5
- Exit ladder
- 90¢ → 25% · 93¢ → 33% of the rest · 95¢ → 50% · 97¢ → all
- Stop
- −25% from entry
- ATR zones
- <$40 squeeze · $40–80 golden · $80–150 high · ≥$150 extreme
- Sessions (ET)
- ASIAN 20–05 ✅ · EUROPE 06–10 🏆 · NY 10–15 ⚠️ · 15:00 ✅ · PACIFIC 16–20 ❌
- News
- pause 30 min before / 2 h after high-impact US releases
6History
- Outcome statistics for the current slot (weekday + end time, ET): 55 weeks of candles plus every live round.
- ‹ › browse other slots; LIVE returns to now.
7Paper trading
- A virtual balance: BUY fills at the current ask, SELL at the current bid.
- Open positions settle at 1.00 / 0.00 when the round resolves.
- No real orders are ever sent from the terminal.
All signals are informational. Thresholds are calibrated from the course and live observation, not from a backtest.